There is much speculation about changes that might occur once fully autonomous vehicles become common. We’ve listed some of the changes that we consider likely. If only a fraction of these become reality, autonomous driving will become one of the most disruptive technologies of all time.
One of the most obvious is that hundreds of thousands of commercial drivers would be out of work, including:
- Cab and Limo Drivers
- Delivery Drivers
- Truck Drivers, including long-haul freight trucks
People may share vehicles, reducing:
- Traffic (Although increase use by more social groups might actually increase numbers of people traveling)
- Need for Parking Spaces
- Car Sales
Commuting long distances might become easier & less stressful, so suburbs might expand further from city cores.
Highway & road congestion might be be reduced by more efficient autonomous vehicles, especially if they communicate with each other. Numerous studies and proposals for “smart roads” use this concept of vehicles communicating and anticipating traffic patterns to travel more efficiently.
New road & highway construction might take a long pause while the new technology is assessed. Signage needs could change, and braking time is reduced so vehicle intervals are closer, allowing more vehicles to use the roads at the same time. Fewer accidents would mean less need for pull-over areas, and perhaps narrower lanes. New traffic patterns will require engineers to design new roads, probably with new technology designed to interface with vehicle computer systems.
Elderly and handicapped individuals might be able to travel more, perhaps enabling more elderly people to live at home longer.
Low-income people might be able to afford more travel.
Police and traffic enforcement needs might drop as accident & speeding are reduced.
Local governments might lose income streams from traffic fines.
Companies that make traffic-enforcement devices might go out of business. For instance, automobile radar-detectors, police radar guns, red-light cameras, etc. Also police cars, as fewer traffic enforcement police and vehicles will be needed.
Law enforcement & police equipment. Fewer police cars, as well as traffic enforcement police, will be needed. Equipment for law enforcement is a major industry, and much of it is financed by money from traffic tickets.
Fewer accidents will likely reduce the need such as auto repair & mechanics. Including automotive paint & body shops.
Automotive used-parts business. Fewer wrecks will mean less need for auto parts, as well as a lower supply of parts from wrecked cars.
Auto insurance companies would be severely affected if accident rates were dramatically reduced.
The need for hospital emergency rooms & ambulance services might be reduced as accidents decrease.
Roadside towing and repair services might lose businesses, along with services such as AAA.
Affordable home delivery of goods might become common once drivers are no longer needed.
The US Postal Service might eventualy be able to automate the majority of deliveries, eliminating tens of thousands of jobs.
Local businesses might be able to afford delivery to customers, potentially improving their chances to compete against large online stores.
Medical insurance rates might be somewhat reduced by a reduction in the number of auto accident injuries.
Lawyers specializing in accidents, speeding tickets, etc. will have less work.
Work for traffic courts and court officials will be reduced.
There will be less need for driving schools if some or all autonomous vehicles do not require passengers to have driver’s licenses.
Auto Parts manufacturers, wholesalers, and retail stores will have less business if accidents decline.
Road repair companies will have less work if fewer accidents reduce damage to railings, signs, overpasses, etc.
Eventually, autonomous vehicles might greatly reduce the need for many road signs and traffic lights.
Autonomous vehicles will be constructed differently, leading to changes in auto parts manufacturers. Steering wheels might become rarities, while elaborate video display consoles might become common.
Autonomous vehicles will require lots of computer capacity including advanced specialized computer processors and many sensors to monitor the vehicle and area around it. Sensors might include video cameras & LIDAR, motion, infrared, and likely many others .
A common concept for autonomous vehicles would have them able to pick-up & drop-off passengers, then park themselves at a remote location. This would call for a major redesign of roads & building access to allow many convenient drop-off locations, plus parking areas designed to accomodate such autonomous vehicles. Parking facilities would presumably also have the ability to recharge electric vehicles.
Technology for vehicle security, such as car door & ignition locks, will have to be changed if vehicles are to be shared by many people. Perhaps smartphone apps or credit cards might be used to “log-in” to a vehicle.
Alcohol sales & bar hours might be affected. Bars generally close at certain hours, often mighnight or 2am, to reduce the number of late-night driving drunks. If their cars to the driving, there might not be much reason to continue having restricted bar hours.
Business locations will be greatly affected. How far will be “convenient” when one no longer has to do the driving? Will automated delivery replace most trips to local stores? Will businesses such as restaurants still need to have highly visible locations on major roads when autonomous cars are able to easily locate them on a computer map and deliver passengers there?
At some point, autonomous vehicles will likely be able to locate and access refueling services without human intervention. Especially electric vehicles, which might do most of their recharging while parked in out-of-the-way remote facilities. This would greatly reduce the need for fueling facilities (gas stations).
Automated refueling, or home electric charging, would probably decimate the “convenience store” industry, that depends on people dropping in to shop while refueling. Convenience stores, in turn, support an entire economic ecology of snack foods, liquor, and impulse items.
Residential and work locations might change, if autonomous vehicles evolve enough to effectively provide public transit to & from nearly any location. People might no longer need to live in locations with bus or transit routes going to their work locations. Both work and homes could be nearly anywhere within reasonable distance, not necessarily on current major traffic routes. Look for major changes in real estate values, as concepts of “location” change dramatically.